Can a simple rating model beat the market?

Twenty-four teams, six groups, 51 matches in Riyadh, Jeddah and Al Khobar from 7 January to 5 February 2027. The model turns team ratings into goal expectations, plays the tournament 20,000 times, and locks its forecasts before kick-off. Every match is then scored against the result and against the market.

Model favourite

Japan

41.3% to win the title

Strongest side wins every match

Japan

Agrees with the simulation

Opening match

Saudi Arabia v Palestine

Thu 7 Jan, 21:00 GST · King Fahd Sports City Stadium

Title race

Title market too thin to use

Team	Knockouts	Semi-final	Model	Market
JPNJapan	99.9%	74.5%	41.3%	–
AUSAustralia	99.9%	66.0%	17.6%	–
KSASaudi Arabia	98.6%	56.6%	11.6%	–
IRNIran	99.1%	47.4%	11.5%	–
KORSouth Korea	99.3%	36.5%	8.6%	–
UZBUzbekistan	94.8%	23.8%	3.4%	–
JORJordan	92.7%	22.2%	2.7%	–
UAEUnited Arab Emirates	93.2%	11.1%	1.0%	–
IRQIraq	94.8%	13.8%	0.9%	–
SYRSyria	79.9%	9.1%	0.4%	–
OMAOman	76.1%	8.8%	0.3%	–
PLEPalestine	74.7%	8.4%	0.3%	–

Top 12 of 24. Full breakdown on Insights.