Insights
Deep-run probability
| Team | Rating | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JPN | 99.9% | 87.7% | 74.5% | 55.4% | 41.3% | |
 AUS | 99.9% | 84.4% | 66.0% | 30.2% | 17.6% | |
 KSA | 98.6% | 83.4% | 56.6% | 29.6% | 11.6% | |
 IRN | 99.1% | 81.7% | 47.4% | 27.8% | 11.5% | |
 KOR | 99.3% | 61.0% | 36.5% | 21.2% | 8.6% | |
 UZB | 94.8% | 70.3% | 23.8% | 10.1% | 3.4% | |
 JOR | 92.7% | 65.7% | 22.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | |
 UAE | 93.2% | 24.7% | 11.1% | 3.8% | 1.0% | |
 IRQ | 94.8% | 35.7% | 13.8% | 4.1% | 0.9% | |
 SYR | 79.9% | 33.9% | 9.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | |
 OMA | 76.1% | 34.3% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | |
 PLE | 74.7% | 33.5% | 8.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | |
 QAT | 66.2% | 20.3% | 5.6% | 1.1% | <0.1% | |
 VIE | 70.3% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | |
 CHN | 59.1% | 16.9% | 3.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% | |
 BHR | 41.3% | 10.7% | 1.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | |
 THA | 57.3% | 13.9% | 3.5% | 0.5% | <0.1% | |
 PRK | 44.0% | 11.5% | 1.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | |
 IDN | 33.0% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
 TJK | 39.4% | 3.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
 KUW | 24.3% | 4.9% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | |
 KGZ | 31.0% | 5.6% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | |
 SGP | 19.0% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
 YEM | 12.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
* Estimated rating pending verification. Saudi Arabia’s rating includes a +100 host adjustment.
Model vs market: group winners
Average gap 5.2 percentage points across 20 teams. Sorted by largest disagreement.
| Team | Group | Model | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPN | F | 95.2% | 74.4% | +20.8 pp |
| QAT | F | 2.5% | 16.0% | -13.5 pp |
| BHR | B | 3.9% | 12.2% | -8.3 pp |
| JOR | B | 41.7% | 33.5% | +8.2 pp |
| UAE | E | 23.3% | 16.1% | +7.2 pp |
| KOR | E | 70.2% | 75.9% | -5.7 pp |
| OMA | A | 12.0% | 17.1% | -5.1 pp |
| AUS | D | 84.0% | 79.4% | +4.6 pp |
| IDN | F | 0.6% | 4.7% | -4.1 pp |
| KSA | A | 75.6% | 71.5% | +4.1 pp |
| PLE | A | 11.1% | 7.6% | +3.5 pp |
| THA | F | 1.7% | 4.9% | -3.2 pp |
| YEM | E | 0.2% | 3.4% | -3.2 pp |
| KUW | A | 1.3% | 3.9% | -2.6 pp |
| SGP | D | 0.1% | 2.4% | -2.3 pp |
| UZB | B | 49.8% | 47.7% | +2.1 pp |
| PRK | B | 4.6% | 6.6% | -2.0 pp |
| VIE | E | 6.3% | 4.7% | +1.6 pp |
| TJK | D | 0.6% | 1.8% | -1.2 pp |
| IRQ | D | 15.2% | 16.4% | -1.2 pp |
Positive gap: the model rates the team higher than the market. Polymarket (gamma API), midpoint of best bid and ask, de-margined, 2026-09-29. Skipped for thin trading: Group C (volume USD 419, 4 priced teams). Title market not used: USD 60 traded and most teams unpriced as of 2026-09-29.
Easiest routes
Mean rating of opponents met in the round of 16, quarter and semi, given the team gets there. Lower is easier. Teams with at least a 25% chance of reaching the knockouts.
| # | Team | R16 | QF | SF | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KSA | 1429 | 1585 | 1706 | 1573 |
| 2 | IRN | 1462 | 1667 | 1672 | 1600 |
| 3 | AUS | 1471 | 1544 | 1806 | 1607 |
| 4 | JPN | 1562 | 1591 | 1701 | 1618 |
| 5 | JOR | 1452 | 1749 | 1693 | 1631 |
| 6 | UZB | 1444 | 1764 | 1694 | 1634 |
| 7 | KOR | 1626 | 1647 | 1662 | 1645 |
| 8 | BHR | 1583 | 1683 | 1684 | 1650 |
| 9 | QAT | 1612 | 1631 | 1713 | 1652 |
| 10 | PRK | 1583 | 1689 | 1689 | 1654 |
| 11 | THA | 1626 | 1629 | 1715 | 1657 |
| 12 | IDN | 1638 | 1624 | 1708 | 1657 |
| 13 | PLE | 1520 | 1702 | 1752 | 1658 |
| 14 | OMA | 1520 | 1702 | 1755 | 1659 |
| 15 | SYR | 1542 | 1683 | 1755 | 1660 |
| 16 | IRQ | 1627 | 1631 | 1724 | 1661 |
| 17 | CHN | 1575 | 1676 | 1741 | 1664 |
| 18 | KGZ | 1590 | 1674 | 1738 | 1667 |
| 19 | TJK | 1639 | 1727 | 1674 | 1680 |
| 20 | UAE | 1762 | 1612 | 1699 | 1691 |
| 21 | VIE | 1759 | 1574 | 1747 | 1693 |
Group strength
| Group F | Mean 1522 | Top 1901 |
| Group B | Mean 1502 | Top 1647 |
| Group A | Mean 1497 | Top 1734 |
| Group C | Mean 1480 | Top 1738 |
| Group E | Mean 1477 | Top 1725 |
| Group D | Mean 1445 | Top 1786 |
Most likely third-place combinations
| Groups A, B, C, E | 14.4% |
| Groups A, B, E, F | 9.3% |
| Groups A, B, D, E | 8.5% |
| Groups A, C, E, F | 8.2% |
| Groups B, C, E, F | 7.6% |
| Groups A, B, C, F | 7.4% |
Method
- Team strength is a World Football Elo rating (as of 2026-09-29, status: verified). The host gets +100.
- Each side scores Poisson goals with rate 1.28 × e±β·d, d = rating gap ÷ 400, β = 0.876. β is fitted so win-plus-half-draw matches Elo’s own win expectancy.
- Ratings are not treated as exact. Each simulated tournament draws every team’s strength from a normal distribution around its rating, with a standard deviation of 60 points for verified ratings and 110 for estimates. This stops the model overrating favourites.
- Groups are ranked by AFC tie-breakers: head-to-head points, goal difference, goals, re-applied to any subset, then overall goal difference and goals, then lots. Disciplinary points are not modelled.
- Knockout draws go to extra time (a third of the normal goal rate), then penalties, which are treated as close to a coin flip (±5 percentage points maximum tilt).
- 20,000 full-tournament simulations, seed 2027, generated 2026-09-29 22:00 UTC. Played results are fixed, not simulated.
- Market-implied probabilities are Polymarket bid/ask midpoints, de-margined. A market counts only after USD 1,000 has traded and quotes are within 10 points. Title odds blend 50/50 with the market once that market qualifies.