Lab of One · Experiment
Asian Cup 2027 Model
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Round of 16 · Match 44

Mon 25 Jan · time TBC · King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Jeddah

Winner Group C v 3rd A/B/F. If the higher-rated side always wins: Iran v Thailand, Iran advance.

Most likely match-ups

Match-upHow oftenFirst-named advances
Iran v North Korea19.1%92%
Iran v Bahrain18.2%93%
Iran v Jordan8.9%67%
Iran v Uzbekistan7.6%64%
Iran v Palestine5.0%84%
Iran v Oman5.0%83%
Iran v Thailand5.0%90%
Iran v Qatar4.5%87%

Advance odds include extra time and penalties, using listed ratings without uncertainty.

Winner Group C

TeamFills slotTitle
IRN80.3%11.5%
SYR12.5%0.4%
CHN5.5%<0.1%
KGZ1.7%0.0%

3rd A/B/F

TeamFills slotTitle
PRK23.5%<0.1%
BHR22.5%<0.1%
JOR11.1%2.7%
UZB9.3%3.4%
PLE6.5%0.3%
OMA6.3%0.3%

Road through this tie

Reaching this round: Iran 99%, Uzbekistan 95%, Jordan 93%, Syria 80%.