Lab of One · Experiment
Asian Cup 2027 Model
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Round of 16 · Match 39

Sat 23 Jan · time TBC · Imam Mohammed Bin Saud University Stadium, Riyadh

Winner Group D v 3rd B/E/F. If the higher-rated side always wins: Australia v Vietnam, Australia advance.

Most likely match-ups

Match-upHow oftenFirst-named advances
Australia v Vietnam25.0%92%
Australia v Thailand13.3%93%
Australia v Qatar11.4%90%
Australia v United Arab Emirates11.4%80%
Australia v Indonesia8.7%97%
Australia v Yemen5.2%99%
Iraq v Vietnam4.5%68%
Australia v South Korea3.4%59%

Advance odds include extra time and penalties, using listed ratings without uncertainty.

Winner Group D

TeamFills slotTitle
AUS84.0%17.6%
IRQ15.2%0.9%
TJK0.6%<0.1%
SGP0.1%0.0%

3rd B/E/F

TeamFills slotTitle
VIE29.8%<0.1%
THA15.6%<0.1%
QAT13.6%<0.1%
UAE13.6%1.0%
IDN10.6%<0.1%
YEM6.2%0.0%

Road through this tie

Reaching this round: Australia 100%, Iraq 95%, United Arab Emirates 93%, Vietnam 70%.